Western Conference Finals Preview: LA vs. DEN

The Los Angeles Lakers and the Denver Nuggets meet once more in the NBA Playoffs, and this time...it's personal!

Well, not really. I mean I fully expect this to be a chippy series, but as for now, we don't have the owner letting Kenyon Martin's mom know that he's a thug, but just wait for it because I can see it coming.

I mean imagine Jeanie Buss twittering that Chris "Bird Man" Andersen should fly back onto the suspension list (Andersen was kicked out of the NBA for violating the drug policy on four non-consecutive occassions).

But seriously, the Western Conference Finals begins on Tuesday night, and unlike last year's matchup, when the Lakers swept the Denver Nuggets in the 1st round, things are different. As Skip Bayless would say, there is no more "Me, Myself, and Iverson" around to help out the other team.

The biggest reason why Denver has made it this far, is the play of Chauncey Billups. Ever since the trade, that brought the prodigal son back to his hometown, the Nuggets have gone 61-27 (including the playoffs)

They started off getting hot at the right time by getting convincing wins from mid-March on. They went 16-3 from 3/11 on and have only lost twice in the NBA Playoffs. Games they should have won by the way. Not games where they didn't show up :cough Lakers cough:

So let's break down the matchups...

Point Guard:

Chauncey Billups has the advantage over any other point guard the Lakers can throw at him. He is big, strong, and fast. Billups is shooting 54% from three in the playoffs, so the Lakers better not sag off of him. Fisher, Farmar, and Brown need to work with their bigs to suffocate him into taking bad shots. Billups is prone to shooting long contested jumpers when the shot clock is winding down. Fisher needs to regain his shooting touch, and Farmar needs to continue to do what he's been doing, and that is drive, drive, drive, but I gotta give the advantage to the guy who's been to seven-straight Conference Finals.

Advantage NUGGETS

Shooting Guard:

As far as the shooting guards go, Kobe should be able to get any kind of shot he wants. Dahntay Jones isn't on the same defensive level as Artest and Battier, but his sole role on the court is to guard Kobe, so expect some competitiveness out of him.

J.R. Smith will get most of the key minutes for Denver. He's a sharpshooter from 3, and he's averaging 16 ppg in the playoffs, an instant lightning bolt of offense. The Lakers will counter with Trevor Ariza and Sasha Vujacic, who can be pesky enough to give the young Smith some problems.

Advantage LAKERS

Small Forward:
The Nuggets clearly have the advantage here with Carmelo Anthony. 'Melo has grown into one of the best players in the NBA. Clearly, the time he spent in China with the Olympic team has changed him. He trusts his teammates more, and has become very reliable in the clutch. He finally got out of the first round, and is leading his team in scoring at 27 ppg.

Linas Kleiza got a lot more minutes last year for the Nuggets, but this deeper Nuggets squad sees him coming off the bench. He's a smart player, who plays an all-around game, that can put the Lakers to sleep if they're not careful.

The funny thing is for the Lakers, that their best defender against 'Melo is gone. Vladimir Radmanovic. I know stop laughing, but watch tape of last year's playoffs, and Vlad gave him fits!

Anyways, Ariza will have his hands full, but he has shown a consistent 3-pt jump shot in the playoffs, and Melo's D still leaves a lot to be desired. Ariza could be an unheralded X-factor in this series. Luke Walton on the other hand, just pass the ball and try not to embarrass yourself too much.

Advantage NUGGETS

Power Forward:

I'm going to put Lamar Odom into the mix as a PF, even though I know he can swing to the three spot as well. The Lakers will start Pau Gasol against Kenyon Martin, and the Spaniard should be able to do some work on K-Mart. Martin has a passion for picking up early fouls, and Gasol's craftiness in the post, will put him on the pine. On the bench, Lamar Odom will terrorize the Nuggets by doing everything that he does (hopefully not missing lay-ups!) Kenyon Martin might be able to give Lamar Odom a hard time, but I see L.O. getting some work done.

The Nuggets counter with Kenyon Martin, and "The Birdman" Chris Andersen. Andersen has become one of the most exciting players to watch in the NBA. Denver explodes when he gets off the bench. He has continued his solid play into the playoffs, as he's getting nearly 2 blocks per game, while grabbing 6 boards. The Lakers need to be aware of him at all times, and make the extra pass down low to expose his eagnerness to fly.

The Laker power forwards in Gasol and Odom are more versatile. Denver's forwards play better defense, but I'm going to have to give the Lakers the advantage here, because their offense easily surpasses what the Nuggets front line can bring.
Advantage LAKERS

Center:

It's Bynum vs. Nene. This might decide the series. If Bynum gives the Lakers nothing like he's done in the playoffs, the Lakers will have a tough time beating this team. The Lakers are hoping the Andrew got back on track in the Game 7 win against Houston, but he will now have to play against a big man his size in Nene "don't call me Hilario."

Nene is an oustanding post player with a wide array of offensive moves. The Lakers will have a tough time guarding his moveset while attempting to keep him off the boards at the same time. I will pick Nene over Bynum here, because of youth and experience. Nene has been averaging 12.5 ppg, while picking up 7 rebounds, against other quality big men that he's faced like Tyson Chandler and Erica Dampier.

Advantage NUGGETS

Final Analysis:

The Lakers have the experience. Last year in the Western Conference Finals, the Lake Show cruised by the Spurs in 5 games to advance to the NBA Finals. This is the first time that the Denver Nuggets have advanced to the Western finals in 24 years.

Home court will play a huge part as well. Denver has won 16 straight at the Pepsi Center in Denver, which has become one of the best home court advantages in the association. The Lakers could win in Denver, but they might have to just win every single home game to advance. Denver is that good on their home court. On the other hand, I believe Denver can steal a game in L.A. If the fans aren't in Game 7 mode, and are sitting on their designer jeans, than there is no real home court advantage for L.A.

In the coaching department, Phil Jackson has never lost to a George Karl team. Does Phil still have a handle on his team? Are they tuning them out? Will they show up? George Karl doesn't need to answer those questions.

This series will be an up-and-down, all-around basketball showcase that will be very fun to watch, but the problem isn't offense with these two teams, it's defense. Whoever plays D in the clutch will take this series.

Kobe also has to play a team game. The team is 59-6 when he shoots 23 shots or fewer.

As far as Game 1 goes, Denver will have to fight a five day lay off, while L.A. will have to control their emotions after a draining 7-gamer with the Rockets. If the Nuggets can steal a game on the road, then I believe that the series is theirs.

I believe that they will win a game in L.A., so I pick the Denver Nuggets to win in six games.

Is my prediction Jakked Up?! Blast off with a comment below.